I shared the above P/C Ratio charts on Twitter and said “monitor very closely from here”. Experienced traders know what this means, but some people don’t. Here’s what it means plain and simple: First, Stock traders need to become more aware and sensitive to any holding, Group or Sector that begins to show weakness particularly if markets continue grinding higher (there seems to be some evidence of this already). Second, Macro traders will be looking at the broader environment for deterioration: any bid to the Dollar (which we want to monitor as discussed here, especially as bank strategists are now calling for a “dramatic fall” in the Dollar and “five to ten years” of declines), any increase in Rates Volatility (might be starting as well), any stabilization in VIX (watch 200dma + August 2019 highs 24-25 area) and any Equity Sector/Geographic weakness developing. The more evidence we get that things are deteriorating under the surface, the more pressure Equities will continue to ignore (as usual) and then release all at once. In Q1 it took about a month, and if the same happens here, Q3 looks like a potential problem. This aligns with signals I’ve started to see in some Core Models, for instance
ich komm nicht los heute vom Shorten und WORK (Slack) sind mir auch ins Depot gehüpft bei knapp -18%; zwar etwas unter den Erwartungen bei den earnings, aber neue Kooperation mit Amazon. Als Gegenentwurf zu MSFT Teams)
ich komm nicht los heute vom Shorten und WORK (Slack) sind mir auch ins Depot gehüpft bei knapp -18%; zwar etwas unter den Erwartungen bei den earnings, aber neue Kooperation mit Amazon. Als Gegenentwurf zu MSFT Teams)
