Energy optimism shows a positive reversal
Dean noted that a trading model that uses the Optix Indexto identify when sentiment reverses from a period of pessimism issued a buy signal for the energy sector on 1/7/22.
The model applies an 84-day range rank to the 10-day moving average of the Optimism Index for the XLE ETF. As a reminder, the range rank indicator measures the current value relative to all other values over a lookback period. A new buy signal occurs when the range rank crosses back above the 78th percentile. At the same time, the 5-day rate of change for the ETF must be positive.
Charttechnisch betrachtet, der Markt ist in einer bedrohlichen Situation.
Wenn der Schlusskurs unter der grünen Linie liegt, dann muss man mit weiterem Abverkauf rechnen.
Vielleicht wird der Markt nächste Woche die Marke 4400 testen.
Nächster Stopp könnte dann die Marke 4300 sein.
Ich fange jetzt an, einige Aktien intensiver zu verfolgen.
Die Bewertung ist überraschend sehr interessant.
In November only two long months ago, Sea reported:
122% year-on-year organic revenue growth
148% growth in gross profit
GMV at a $67 billion run-rate, a 1.3x Sea’s enterprise value
A $2.9 billion EBITDA run rate for gaming, though growth here has moderated to 29% year-on-year
120% growth in users of Sea’s payment app, up to 39 million mostly young emerging market users,
And in addition, Sea entered India, and was the most downloaded app in South America, and entered Europe through Poland, Portugal, France, and Spain.
So far, indicators suggest Sea’s e-commerce app Shopee is doing even better in India than it was in Brazil, where it quickly became the most downloaded app and already accounts for ~8% of Sea’s GMV.
After their October launch, Shopee is already the third largest shopping app in India by daily active users.
Despite these results, the stock dropped 55% since November, which is why we see this as a positioning/valuation unwind rather than any fundamental issue.
The main negative news was that Tencent, a major shareholder, sold a small portion of its holding below 10%. But even this has a silver lining - as it allows Sea to avoid foreign ownership restrictions in India.
In September, Sea raised $6 billion of capital at $318/share (currently $167) leaving the business with $11 billion of cash and a current enterprise value of $88 billion.
If you separate the two businesses, and value payments at zero, this is one of the cheapest e-commerce companies around, as well as the fastest growing and most dominant at this scale. As with many of our companies, Sea is truly an apex predator, entering new markets and rapidly taking share, forcing competitors to react.
Throughout the sell-off, estimates have been consistently revised upwards:
Quelle: Frazis Capital Management